Rabat – Morocco is expected to maintain solid economic momentum over the next two years, with GDP projected to grow by 3.7% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027, according to Allianz Research’s “Country Risk Atlas 2026: Under the surface” report. The country has recorded growth above 3.5% since 2023, marking a departure from the volatility seen in earlier years.
Industrial production and foreign investment in manufacturing, energy, and mining continue to support expansion. Agricultural output has recovered after years of drought, while tourism is set to rise by 20% in 2026, driven in part by the Africa Cup of Nations hosted in Morocco. Inflation is forecast to remain subdued at around 1% in 2026, similar to 2025 levels.
Morocco’s risk rating for enterprises is classified as low at B1. The report describes the economy as increasingly diversified and positioned as a growing manufacturing hub for the European Union, with automobiles and phosphates leading exports.
Phosphate exports rebounded by 20% year-on-year in 2025 after a post-pandemic slowdown. The automotive sector exported more than 500,000 cars in 2023, placing Morocco among the top suppliers of cars to Europe.
Public finances have shown relative stability. Debt service stood at around 3.7% of GDP in 2025 and is projected to decline toward 3% by 2027. The debt-to-GDP ratio, which peaked at 70% in 2024, is expected to fall to 65% by 2027.
In March 2025, Morocco issued €2 billion in Eurobonds to support spending ahead of major sporting events. S&P upgraded the country to investment grade in September 2025.
The central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at the end of 2025 and is preparing to move the dirham toward full flexibilization in 2026. The currency remains pegged to a euro-dollar basket within a 5% fluctuation band.
Despite the macroeconomic performance, structural pressures remain. Insolvencies rose 10% in 2025 and are expected to stabilize in 2026.
Youth unemployment stands at 35%, and around three-quarters of the workforce operates in the informal sector.
In October 2025, Gen Z-led protests erupted over the state of public healthcare and broader concerns about living standards, with demonstrators also voicing frustration over how public funds are managed and long-standing perceptions of political privilege. The government responded by announcing higher allocations for health and education in the 2026 budget.
Legislative elections are scheduled for September 2026 and represent the next major political milestone after the unrest, though the report indicates that significant policy shifts are not expected to emerge from the vote.
Read also: EU Recommits to Partnership With Morocco After Record €740M Financing in 2025
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